In February, Argentina formally complained to the United Nations over the United Kingdom’s alleged ‘militarisation’ of the South Atlantic. According to the Argentine government, by deploying HMS Dauntless (a Type 45 destroyer) to the South Atlantic, the UK was "militarising the region". [1] The Argentine foreign minister sought to raise the level of alarm at the UN by accusing the UK of sending nuclear weapons to the area. The UK's ambassador to the United Nations, Sir Mark Lyall Grant, pointed out that the UK’s defence posture had not changed, as HMS Dauntless was replacing another ship, and that the location of nuclear submarines is - of course - secret. [2]

Argentina’s complaint to the UN is but the latest step in Argentina’s diplomatic campaign to isolate the UK in its refusal to negotiate over its sovereignty over the Falklands. This has been accompanied by a mounting campaign to isolate the islands economically. Argentina recently succeeded in persuading neighbouring countries to refuse access to their ports to ships flying the Falkland Islands flag. On 15th December 2011, the Mercosur group of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay agreed to block any ship flying the Falklands flag to enter their ports. [3] This follows support from the newly formed Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which held its first summit in Caracas, Venezuela, in December 2011.  At the Caracas summit, CELAC issued a 'Special Communiqué Project on the Malvinas Islands' stating that members of CELAC support “Argentina’s legitimate rights in the sovereignty dispute over the Falklands/Malvinas, Georgia del Sur and Sandwich del Sur Islands, as well as its surrounding maritime spaces.” [4]

However, the ban on Falkland Islands ships may have little practical impact as Brazil, Chile and Uruguay all agreed with the British Government that Falklands shipping flying the British Red Ensign or another national flag would still be admitted to their ports as normal. [5] Similarly, Argentina's complaint to the UN about the UK has made little progress.

Yet, while the US administration quickly dismissed the Argentine claim of 'militarisation’, the USA’s position on British sovereignty over the Falklands is less than helpful, with the official position being "We recognize de facto United Kingdom administration of the islands but take no position regarding sovereignty". [6]

The problem with this position is that it ignores the rights of the Falkland Islanders themselves, who unanimously wish to remain British (as the territory has been since 1833) and have no desire to become Argentinean.  The right to self-determination is recognised in Article 1.2 of the UN Charter.  There should therefore be no question over the status of the Falklands, and is no justification for negotiations over sovereignty against the wishes of the population. Since Argentina’s attempt to take the Falklands by force in 1982, successive British governments have promised to defend this basic right of the Islanders.

Questions have been raised about the UK’s ability to repeat its success of thirty years ago in the event of any future military conflict, particularly following the cuts to the UK’s armed forces set out in the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review, and especially the lack of aircraft carrier capability until 2020. However, the Islands are much better defended now than they were in 1982, with a British garrison of 1200, four Eurofighter Typhoon strike fighter planes, a naval destroyer, an Antarctic patrol ship, a Royal Fleet Auxiliary support vessel and possibly an attack submarine. It would therefore be difficult for Argentina to transport military forces across 300 miles of ocean to invade the islands. Whereas the UK's armed forces are much better-equipped and more technologically advanced than in 1982, Argentina has hardly updated its military hardware since the Falklands War and no longer possesses the landing craft to enable an amphibious assault. This is the main reason why another Argentine military attack is, in the foreseeable future unlikely. Yet such an event cannot be ruled out: after all, the 1982 invasion took the British government by surprise. [7] There is no room for complacency now.

It is therefore encouraging that the security of the Falklands was discussed at length by the UK's National Security Council. [8] Prime minister David Cameron made clear: "The reason for holding a National Security Council... is to make sure nobody is in any doubt that Britain supports that right of self-determination, and we will go on doing so for as long as people in the Falklands want to continue in that way." [9] Argentina's actions mean that British inaction is not an option. Argentine defence minister Arturo Puricelli raised the prospect of armed conflict, telling an Argentine radio station: “What the British have got to understand is that we tolerate them in the Falklands but if any armed English force invades Argentine territory, have no doubt we will exercise our legitimate right to self-defence and we have the capacity to do so.” [10] Given that Argentina regards the Falklands and the surrounding areas as 'Argentine territory', this could be interpreted as a very broad threat.

Argentina’s diplomatic campaign against the Falklands continues.  Argentine president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has invited leaders from South America's UNASUR bloc to join her in Ushaia, Argentina, on 2nd April at a ceremony marking the 30th anniversary of the Argentine invasion of the Falklands. [11] Further diplomatic and economic pressure in this 30th year since the Falklands War and in future years is to be expected. In the face of Argentina’s attempts at intimidation, it is right for the British government to continue to demonstrate that it is ‘business as usual’ in the Falklands. There is little the UK can do which would not be interpreted as a 'provocation' by the Argentine government. The UK will need to retain the will and the capability to defend the Falkland Islands and the rights of the Islanders, alone if necessary.

Peter Cannon is an Associate Fellow of the Henry Jackson Society

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[1] Argentina minister to raise "UK militarisation" at UN', BBC News, 9th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-16976491

[2] Argentina accuses Britain of sending nuclear missiles to Falklands', Daily Telegraph, 11th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9...

[3] William Hague warns against Falklands intimidation', Theo Usherwood, 10th January 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/william-hague-warns-agains...

[4] Argentina and the Falkland Islands', Vaughan Miller, House of Commons Library, 27th January 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05602

[5] William Hague warns against Falklands intimidation', Theo Usherwood, The Independent, 10th January 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/william-hague-warns-agains...

[6] U.S. Position on the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands', US State Department Taken Question, 20th January 2012, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/01/182294.htm

[7] Complacency over the Falklands could cost Britain dear', Con Coughlin, Daily Telegraph, 19th January 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9...

[8] Falklands - David Cameron Reveals Security Chiefs Discussed Argentina Tensions', Huffington Post UK, 18th January 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/18/falklands-david-cameron-natio...

[9] Falkland Islands stir fresh tensions as war's 30th anniversary looms', Nicholas Watt, The Guardian, 18th January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/18/falkland-islands-argentina-anni...

[10] We're ready for Falklands war says Argentina', Macer Hall, 9th February 2012, http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/300965/

[11] Argentina Bars Carnival Ships From Docking', Alejandro Madril, Huffington Post, 27th February 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/27/argentina-cruises-falklands_n_1...